A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
