Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
